L’illusione della certezza nasce dal non capire che la gran parte degli scenari della vita reale sono incerti.
In reality, there are three types of scenarios: certain, risky and uncertain.
Certain scenario: the logic’s domain. If BMW reports a shortage of rare-earth metal, it’s possible it will announce a decrase in price of 10%: that’s the certain thing. I just know i will save 2.000€ on a 20.000€ 116d car. I will be happy.
Humans like this scenario, because the risks are risky.
Risky scenario: statistics can help us. The smoke doesn’t cause the lung cancer. There’s a kind of correlation between them: X% of lung cancer are caused by cigarette smoke.
I’m writing this article because i feel that uncertain rules the world. It’s not chaos, instead it’s a sort of small trickle on the sand.
We’re playing with the sand and a bottle has just been turned upside down. The water is moving towards the sea because the beach is slighly sloping. The water will follow the path with less resistance but the people can just play also with it.
I can draw new canals with a finger, or create a dune in order not to let the water pass.
Of course i cannot touch the water, or block it in a permanent way, other wise the game ends ☺
Even tracing canals or with similar actions, there will always be some part of the flow sinking in the sand, climbing over the walls or simply another boy stepping on our perfect hydraulic opera.
We can manage, we cannot create.
Del doman non v’e’ certezza
The most tangible thing we can do is to understand the reality.
The focus of the choice is not the logical mechanisms nor the probabilities of the events, but the data that revolve around the problem, present and future. The ability to acquire the best data (acquisitive intelligence) combined with the ability to use it correctly according to the principles of logic and statistics (rational intelligence) without being influenced by one’s personality (affective intelligence) is at the basis of the ratiological process.
In uncertain scenarios it would be absurd to seek certainty (illusion of certainty), the true, the right: the theory of rational choice applies to them:
the least criticizable choice is the coherent one,
that is, it has no contradictions. In uncertain scenarios, logic and statistics serve “only” to find the most coherent solution.
Bias is a responsed to a concept that is too or too few complaisant. Usually it’s linked to closed-minded, prejudicial, or unfair issues.
In science and engineering, a bias is a systematic error, so it can be eliminated in some way.
They are very dangerous for the individual. Try to think to Egocentric bias: If i rely too much on my own perspective, i could appear as an arrogant people, but the main problem is that your brain will start to let the information flow inside and build in some way it will manage only the yielding ideas.
So that means many information fill touch your bulkhead but never flow inside. It’s a kind of waste and i don’t like wastefulness.
In my life i’ve experimented several time sporadic embarassment during social moments. The group as a whole acted in a way very different compared to the dynamics i can see and test in smaller parts of the same group.
Leaders in sub-groups, were not in the big one. And vice-versa.
Girls are much more volatile than boys according to group’s numerousness.
Families are less hit from this behavior and the roles tend to be same in public occasions. I think this is another explanation of why families are the briks of the society: they are stable. Stability does not lead to happiness, but to the species conservation.
Biases can be divided into 4 categories:
– Cognitive biases: Kant once told that “if you wear blue (or pink, i don’t remember) glasses, you will see a blue (or pink) world”
– Conflicts of interest
– Statistical biases
In my opinion the first one is the most important for a correct reality reading. And also the easier to be uprooted.
Many of them are related to a relation between people. A simple linguistic change in the conversation will cause the bias to be more or less evident.
A list of cognitive bias can be easily found on wikipedia.
I wish to add a personal view on each of them: a short story in the case i just experimented that particular situation。
Remember: studying bias means you will pay more attention to your thoughts, but you will also understand other people better